Four key areas Birmingham City have to improve next season to earn promotion

Birmingham City F.C. look set to finish mid-table in their first season back in the Championship, falling short of the high expectations that followed their return from League One.

After a dominant, record-breaking campaign in the third tier, many had tipped Chris Davies’ side for at least a play-off push, with some even predicting a challenge for automatic promotion.

However, the reality of the Championship has proven far tougher, and the Blues currently sit 10th — a respectable position, but still well outside the promotion places.

Despite that standing, underlying data suggests Birmingham may have underachieved relative to their performances.

They remain 10 points behind the final play-off spot, currently held by Wrexham A.F.C., a side they outperformed last season. This gap highlights the frustration among supporters, especially given signs that the team’s displays have deserved more.

Statistically, the Blues have shown promise. They’ve generated nearly 60 expected goals (xG) while scoring slightly fewer, indicating missed opportunities in attack.

Defensively, the numbers also reveal a mixed picture — while their expected goals against suggest a stronger defensive record, individual errors have cost them dearly, directly leading to goals and dangerous chances throughout the campaign.

Goalkeeper James Beadle has experienced a season of development, posting an average save percentage while balancing moments of inexperience with impressive performances. Given his age, there is clear room for growth, particularly within a demanding tactical system that places heavy responsibility on the goalkeeper.

Overall, Birmingham’s underlying metrics paint the picture of a team capable of more. In fact, based on expected points, they rank significantly higher than their actual position suggests.

With potential changes — including an expanded play-off format — even small improvements could be enough to push the club into genuine promotion contention next season.