What chance do you think Manchester United has of winning the Champions League?

United is in the bottom part of the table going into the international break. They are only five points above the relegation zone and ten points behind the leaders.

United has the fewest points ever after seven games in the Premier League season, with eight. They are already six points behind fourth-placed Chelsea.

The club’s board will meet as usual on Tuesday. The future of boss Erik ten Hag and their spot in the table are likely to be on the agenda.

One thing is for sure: they are setting themselves up for a tough fight to make the Champions League next season, even though it is still early in the process.

What are the odds of finishing in the top four?

Only twice in the history of the Premier League has a team with eight points or less after seven games gone on to win the league and make the Champions League.

The Red Devils were in first place with 12 points, 12 points ahead of Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal in 2011-12. Arsenal was in 15th place, 8 points behind fourth place.

With 70 points, the Gunners came in third and were easily in the running for the Champions League.

The other time was in 2022–23, when Eddie Howe’s Newcastle had eight points and ended up fourth with 71.

Both Arsenal and Newcastle didn’t change their managers after slow starts, but Opta says Ten Hag’s team has only a 2% chance of making the top four.

This season, might fifth place be enough?

At the end of last season, the race for an extra spot in the Champions League got a lot of attention.

It looked like England would get one for a while, but in the end, Italy and Germany won because of how well their teams did in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.

It’s still very early in the season, so the tables are skewed in favor of countries whose teams did well in the qualifying rounds.

The bigger countries, on the other hand, are likely to be the ones fighting until the end, since their teams will be competing for the prizes.

England has the highest average number of points among the major countries. Five of their seven teams are ranked in the top eight, so they already look like they will be able to get a number of clubs to the last 16 or play-off stages.

What other routes do Man Utd have?

If you win the Europa League this year, you can play in the Champions League next year.

But the Red Devils would have to play a lot better than they did last week against Porto, when they went from being ahead 2-0 to behind 3-2 before Harry Maguire scored in the last minute to tie the game.

United has yet to win in the Europa League this season. In their first game, they tied FC Twente and are still looking for their first win.

The next time they play in Europe is on October 24, when they go to Turkey to play Fenerbahce, a team managed by former player Jose Mourinho.

Man Utd’s best run of wins under Ten Hag?

After a bad start, United will need a good run of form to get back into the running for the Champions League.

Ten Hag has led his team to great wins in the past. From November 2022 to January 2023, they won nine straight games in all competitions, which was their longest such streak since Sir Alex Ferguson left the club.

They went from fifth in the league to third after winning five games in a row in the Premier League, which was his best winning streak in a full season.

They finished the season in that spot, three points behind Arsenal in second place and Manchester City in first place.

How much money does Man Utd lose if they don’t make the Champions League?

If United didn’t make it to the Champions League, they said in their records that their shirt deal with Adidas would be cut by £10 million.

The 10-year extension was signed in July 2023 and lasts until 2035. United had told BBC Sport that it was worth at least £900 million.

In August, Don McGuire, senior vice president of Qualcomm, said that there was no similar clause in the company’s £60 million-a-year deal with United to put the Snapdragon name on the team’s uniforms until 2027.

Each Premier League club also gets about £3 million in prize money at the end of the season.

In that case, they would need to earn an extra £12 million to get into the Champions League instead of coming eighth, where they did last year.

How much would it cost to fire Ten Hag?

BBC Sport’s head of football news, Simon Stone says:

We don’t know the exact amount of money Ten Hag would get if his deal was canceled.

Ten Hag’s boss, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, was fired in 2021 and given a payoff of £7m. Another £3m went to other staff members who worked for him. The Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability rules say that this money gets straight to a club’s bank account. This means that the club has less money to spend on players.

Just like with transfers, any pay that needs to be made for a new manager can be spread out over the length of the deal. The amount that goes into this year’s accounts would rely on how long the contract is and how much the person is paid.

But a club might decide that a move is worth making because they think that a player’s expected improvement in performance will bring in more money in TV fees, ticket sales, and prize money.

And, just like last summer, clubs have until June 30 to turn in their books. This way, any that might go over the £105 million in losses allowed by the Premier League over three seasons can sell players.

United said last month that they would lose a net of £113.2 million until June 30, 2024. The losses in the past two years were £28.7m and £115.5m.

For PSR reasons, some of the costs can be made up for, and United says they will follow the rules.

How often has Manchester United not played in the Champions League?

A long time ago, people thought United could never miss the Champions League.

Their best years were 1998–99 and 2007–08. They also came in second place twice, in 2008–09 and 2010–11.

But since he left in 2013, they’ve played in it seven times and the Europa League six times.

They’ve only made it to the rounds of the Champions League twice since Ferguson left. They’ve never gone any further.