As two rising teams in the NBA, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder frequently play each other.
The two clubs had similar ascents in the 2010s and met three times in the playoffs; the Thunder prevailed in two of those meetings after seven games.
After making it to the second round of the playoffs in 2021–22, the Grizzlies have recently emerged as a top-tier club.
In 2023–24, though, their paths diverged as the Thunder soared to the top of the Western Conference while the Grizzlies had a slump.
Both teams were at the top of the standings for most of the last season before a late-season slide by the Grizzlies triggered a first-round playoff series between the two teams. The Thunder swept the Grizzlies en route to an NBA championship, therefore increasing the gap between the two teams.
While the Grizzlies acknowledged that gap and have approached this offseason as such, a recent stat shows that the Grizzlies and Thunder have a lot more in common than you think.
The Grizzlies have been overachievers over the last 15 years
The Memphis Grizzlies are overachievers and typically perform better than their preseason projection.
Since Ja Morant was drafted in 2019, the Grizzlies have finished above their preseason over/under win total every season except the 2023-24 season.
That season was an outlier due to Morant’s suspension and injury-shortened season which included the team playing the most players ever in a season (33).
According to Sportico, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overachieving team in the NBA since the 2010 season, with an average of over four wins over their preseason over/under. The Grizzlies ranked fourth on that same list with just under an average of two wins over their preseason over/under in that same timespan.
The Grizzlies were one of only six teams to average over one win over their preseason total in the last 15 years, along with the Thunder, Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, and Utah Jazz.
Considering the Thunder and Pacers were just facing off in the NBA Finals let’s you know that Memphis is on the right path, and the expectation is that they will likely overachieve.
In an effort to stay competitive with the Thunder going forward, they started a personnel overhaul this offseason.
Despite the success of its core in the previous two seasons, they needed to fix a number of issues after being swept by Oklahoma City.
If past performance is any indication, though, Memphis should be back in the thick of things in the Western Conference very soon.
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