No Surprise Twist: Red Wings Let Dower Nilsson Walk Without a Deal… Read More…
DETROIT – In a move that surprised almost no one paying attention to the Detroit Red Wings’ developmental system, the organization officially announced today that it would not be offering a contract to Swedish forward Theodor Dower Nilsson before the June 1 deadline. With that, the 2021 fifth-round pick becomes an unrestricted free agent, free to explore opportunities elsewhere — assuming there’s interest.
The decision closes the book on a chapter that never quite took off. For the Red Wings, who have spent the better part of a decade stockpiling talent under GM Steve Yzerman, the Dower Nilsson situation is less of a loss and more of a necessary pruning — one that signals a continued tightening of standards in a pipeline that’s begun to produce legitimate NHL contributors.
A Name With Promise, But a Game That Plateaued
Drafted 134th overall in 2021 out of Frölunda’s junior system, Dower Nilsson was once seen as a potential sleeper pick — a cerebral playmaker with soft hands and high hockey IQ. At the time, the Red Wings were particularly active in Sweden, with scouts making regular trips to track prospects like Simon Edvinsson, William Wallinder, and of course, Theodor’s older brother Liam, who was selected by Detroit in the same 2021 draft at 134th overall — just 11 picks later.
There were whispers that the Red Wings hoped the Nilsson brothers might develop into a Swedish duo in the mold of the Sedins — obviously not in caliber, but perhaps in chemistry and leadership. The early promise was there. Theodor had posted 50 points in 40 games in the J20 Nationell league, showing flashes of vision and poise with the puck.
But after being drafted, his progression stalled.
Dower Nilsson never fully transitioned to the pace and physicality of the SHL, bouncing between Frölunda’s main roster and its lower affiliate. In 2023, he moved to Västerås IK in the second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan, hoping that more ice time would translate into production. While he logged respectable minutes and occasional top-six usage, the offensive impact never materialized.
In 48 games this past season, Dower Nilsson tallied just 16 points — a modest return for a 22-year-old still trying to break through in a league considered a step below the NHL. Scouts noted a lack of explosive skating and an inconsistent motor, two attributes considered non-negotiables for the Yzerman-era Red Wings.
A Crowded Pipeline
Detroit’s decision not to offer Dower Nilsson an entry-level deal is also a reflection of just how crowded their pipeline has become — especially at the forward position.
“I wouldn’t say it was an easy decision, but it was a clear one,” said Red Wings assistant GM Kris Draper in a media availability Monday. “We’re thrilled with the development of guys like [Marco] Kasper, [Carter] Mazur, [Amadeus] Lombardi, and [Nate] Danielson. There’s only so many contracts we can hand out under the 50-player limit. At this point, we had to make a tough call.”
The Red Wings currently sit at 45 contracts and are widely expected to sign Swedish forward Anton Johansson this summer, as well as negotiate extensions with restricted free agents Jonatan Berggren and Albert Johansson. Simply put, there was no room for a prospect who hadn’t demanded attention with his play.
What Went Wrong?
For some fans, the Dower Nilsson news is a minor footnote in the team’s broader development strategy — but for others, it’s a reminder of how fickle prospect development can be.
“He was always a long shot to make the NHL,” said Scott Wheeler, a prospects writer for The Athletic. “But there were times you saw real flashes of playmaking ability — threading passes through traffic, reading plays before they developed. The problem was, he never added layers to his game. You have to evolve after the draft, and I think that’s where it stopped for him.”
Dower Nilsson’s relatively slight frame (6’0”, 170 lbs) and average skating meant he needed to produce consistently to remain relevant as a prospect. When that didn’t happen, especially with younger players leapfrogging him in the system, his fate became a matter of when, not if.
The Brother Factor
There’s also the question of what this decision means for older brother Liam Dower Nilsson, who remains in Detroit’s system but has faced similar concerns about stagnation. He spent last season captaining Frölunda’s J20 team but struggled to make an impact at the pro level.
Some analysts wonder if this signals a broader phasing-out of both Nilsson brothers.
“Liam’s still on the radar, but the shine is definitely off,” said Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. “The organization gave both kids a fair shot, but they’re being very honest about who’s rising and who’s stalling.”
What’s Next for Theodor?
At 22, Dower Nilsson isn’t without options — but he’ll have to earn his way back onto the radar. It’s likely he’ll continue playing in Europe, possibly remaining in HockeyAllsvenskan or even exploring opportunities in Germany’s DEL or Finland’s Liiga.
“There’s still a player there,” said a Swedish scout who asked to remain anonymous. “But he needs a fresh start. He needs to play with confidence again — be a go-to guy on a team, not a bubble player looking over his shoulder.”
As for the NHL? That door seems shut for now — but stranger things have happened. If he explodes in Europe over the next couple of seasons, there’s always the chance a team takes a flyer. But for now, he’s on the outside looking in.
The Bigger Picture
In the end, the Red Wings’ decision isn’t about failure — it’s about focus. The Yzerman regime has made it clear that development is essential, but so is accountability. Not every draft pick will pan out. In fact, most won’t. The key is knowing when to move on and allocate resources to prospects with upward momentum.
Letting Dower Nilsson go may not make headlines like a blockbuster trade or free agent signing, but it represents a subtle shift — a quiet pruning of a tree that’s growing ever taller.
“There’s no hard feelings,” Draper said. “We wish Theodor all the best. Sometimes it just doesn’t line up. That’s hockey.”
No surprise twist. Just the cold, calculated reality of pro sports.
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