According to BetMGM’s 2025–26 odds forecast, the Dallas Mavericks will have a low win total despite having a stellar summer.
Many Dallas Mavericks supporters have already started trading in their feelings of sadness for excitement for next season, despite the fact that the 2024–25 season was a complete and utter disaster beginning on Christmas Day and continuing through the play-in round.
The Mavericks had a historic offseason, adding Cooper Flagg—one of the top rookie prospects in recent memory—and winning the NBA Draft lottery for the first time.
With a roster full of players with team-friendly contracts, Dallas also returns a plethora of star power and solid depth.
After undergoing surgery on his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in March, superstar point guard Kyrie Irving’s recuperation will be the main focus going into next season.
While waiting for Irving to return, the Mavericks added veteran ball handler D’Angelo Russell to their attack.
But other bookmakers think they’ll suffer greatly without Irving, or perhaps without traded sensation Luka Doncic for the entire season.
The Mavs’ win total for the 2025–26 season is an alarmingly low 38.5 according to BetMGM. That score ranks 10th in the Western Conference and 19th overall in the NBA.
When compared to the previous preseason prediction, it is likewise one of the largest declines.
The Mavericks’ win total from the previous season was 50. So far, that’s a 12-game change.
Dallas might not have the scoring punch at the beginning of the season without Kyrie, but the front court projects to be one of the strongest in the league with Anthony Davies, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford holding down the fort inside on both ends.
Davis is a capable scorer from multiple levels, and he’ll need to turn into the top offensive option for the first time since joining the Mavericks.
Defensively, the Mavs should be more than capable to be a playoff team in the West. Along with the front court, versatile role players like PJ Washington, Naji Marshall and Dante Exum are expected to be contributors with their unique two-way skillsets. Flagg also profiles as a useful piece that impacts winning in various ways once he gets his feet wet in the league.
Of course, this projection all but assumes that Dallas will get off to a slow start amid Irving’s recovery, but if the Mavs can get above-average facilitating from Russell, Exum and the rest of the guard rotation early in the year, a 50-win season can still be possible if Irving comes back strong in time for a late-season run going into the playoffs.
The Mavs’ unique depth might encourage Irving to take a cautious and extended rehab program, but Jason Kidd will still want to stack up wins to set up a favorable playoff position for his eventual return.
More luck with health – and no unfathomable mid-season trades – will help the Mavericks this season compared to last, but only time will tell if this roster can surpass their surprising 38.5 win-total prediction.
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