Early Projections Suggest Another Disappointing Season Ahead for the Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys—America’s Team, five-time Super Bowl champions, and perennial headline makers—are once again facing an uncomfortable truth: the 2025 NFL season could be another disappointing chapter in their recent history. Despite the star-studded roster and enormous fanbase expectations, early projections are painting a sobering picture for Cowboys fans who are growing weary of postseason underachievement and fading championship hopes.
As preseason training camps open around the league, the chatter around the Cowboys isn’t about Super Bowl runs or NFC dominance. Instead, the talk is of regression, roster instability, and organizational hesitancy at the top. According to several analytics-based forecasts and NFL insiders, Dallas is projected to finish behind key divisional rivals, and potentially even miss the playoffs entirely.
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**What’s Behind the Bleak Outlook?**
The projections stem from a mix of roster departures, coaching questions, salary cap constraints, and a brutal schedule. And while Dallas still possesses top-tier talent, many believe that the team is not positioned to take the next step—especially when others in the NFC have improved significantly.
Here’s what’s driving the pessimism:
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**1. Mike McCarthy’s Uncertain Future**
Head coach Mike McCarthy is entering what many are calling a “lame-duck” season. After another early playoff exit in 2024—this time a disappointing Wild Card loss to the Green Bay Packers—questions have swirled around his leadership. Team owner Jerry Jones opted to keep McCarthy, but made it clear that expectations are sky-high. Anything less than a deep playoff run might mark the end of McCarthy’s tenure.
But that lack of long-term security has already had an impact. Assistant coaches, including defensive coordinator Dan Quinn (now head coach of the Washington Commanders), have moved on. This has left Dallas to rework its defensive identity while keeping pressure on a coaching staff that feels incomplete.
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**2. Defensive Setbacks After Dan Quinn’s Departure**
Dan Quinn’s exit was a major blow. Under Quinn, the Cowboys became one of the NFL’s most feared defenses. His aggressive schemes and ability to elevate players like Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs helped Dallas become a turnover-producing machine. With his departure, the defense has to adjust to new play-calling and coaching philosophies.
While the Cowboys still boast elite individual talent—Parsons, Diggs, and DeMarcus Lawrence among them—cohesion and system familiarity may suffer. The new defensive coordinator faces a tough task: maintain an elite standard without the architect who built it.
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**3. Dak Prescott’s Contract and Inconsistent Play**
Quarterback Dak Prescott remains the face of the franchise, but his long-term future is increasingly murky. Entering the final year of his deal, Prescott has not yet agreed to an extension. The negotiations are reportedly “stalled,” and while both sides claim mutual respect, the delay has created tension.
On the field, Prescott continues to be an enigma. At his best, he’s among the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. But his turnover issues in high-pressure games, particularly in the postseason, have kept Dallas from progressing. With contract distractions lingering, and a weakened offensive line in front of him, Prescott could be in for a difficult season.
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**4. Offensive Line Decline and Injury Concerns**
The once-dominant Cowboys offensive line is a shell of its former self. Injuries and age have caught up, and early camp reports suggest that depth could be a major issue. First-round rookie tackle Tyler Guyton is expected to start immediately, but learning on the job in the NFL isn’t easy—especially when your quarterback’s health and timing depend on it.
Zack Martin remains an All-Pro force, but the unit overall lacks the consistency needed to anchor a high-level offense.
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**5. Lack of Offensive Firepower Beyond CeeDee Lamb**
CeeDee Lamb is a legitimate superstar, coming off a 1,700+ yard season. But after him, the weapons become questionable. Tony Pollard is gone (signed by the Tennessee Titans), and while the team brought in Ezekiel Elliott for a reunion, he’s clearly past his prime.
Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert offer speed, but neither has proven to be reliable week-to-week threats. The tight end group remains middling, and the Cowboys’ offense, on paper, lacks the kind of explosiveness seen in true contenders like San Francisco, Detroit, and Philadelphia.
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**6. Tough NFC East and Brutal Schedule**
The NFC East is no longer a cakewalk. The Eagles remain a powerhouse with Jalen Hurts leading a loaded roster. Washington, under Dan Quinn, is expected to be more disciplined and defensively sharp. The Giants, while still rebuilding, have made notable improvements on both sides of the ball.
Add to that a brutal non-divisional schedule featuring the 49ers, Bengals, and Dolphins, and the road to 10 wins looks steep. If early-season losses pile up, pressure from fans and ownership could boil over quickly.
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**What the Projections Say**
Stat-based models from multiple outlets are predicting a **9-8 or 8-9 finish**, with just a 35% chance of making the playoffs. That’s a dramatic drop from previous years where Dallas routinely ranked as a top-10 team entering the season. This time, analysts point to instability, thin depth, and a lack of momentum as key concerns.
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**Final Thoughts: Time Running Out in Dallas**
It’s a difficult moment for a franchise stuck in the middle. The Cowboys are too talented to rebuild but not disciplined or deep enough to truly contend. The early projections are not a death sentence, but they are a clear warning.
Jerry Jones still believes his team is capable of greatness, and perhaps with a strong start, renewed chemistry, and a bit of luck, Dallas could surprise the critics. But right now, the feeling around the NFL is that the Cowboys are heading toward another season that begins with promise and ends in heartbreak.
And for one of the most iconic franchises in sports, that’s a story fans have heard far too often.
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